Mobile Bay & Gulf Hits 73°F as Cobia Migration and Trout Bite Peak

What's Biting

What's Next

The current thermal picture is encouraging. A 73°F reading at NOAA buoy 42012 signals that the Gulf has cleared the mid-spring warm-up and entered the narrow window when the most sought-after inshore and nearshore species are simultaneously in play. Whether that translates to consistent boat limits depends on whether the current sea state settles.

Both NOAA buoys 42012 and 42040 are reporting 3-foot wave heights as of May 6. If winds back off over the next 24–48 hours — which is common after an initial late-spring wind event — nearshore structure fishing will open up meaningfully. Channel markers, artificial reefs, and ledges in the 20–40 foot range are where cobia concentrate during their May transit. Sight-casting live pinfish or eels to cobia following cownose rays is the high-percentage play; bring a spinning rod rigged and ready at all times. The waning gibbous moon this week will drive moderate tidal swings, and active tidal movement tends to push cobia up onto structure — plan offshore runs to coincide with incoming or outgoing current.

For bay and inshore anglers, protected waters on the Mobile Bay grass flats are the priority targets through the week. Speckled trout at 73°F are active through more of the day than at summer temperatures, though dawn and the first hour of incoming tide remain the most reliable feeding window. Topwater plugs worked slowly over submerged grass draw aggressive strikes early, and soft plastics under a popping cork are the fallback once surface activity slows. Focus the western shore grass lines and the upper bay flats near the delta mouths where baitfish concentrations are highest in May.

Redfish should be in back-bay and marsh-edge habitat now, following tidal creeks as water pushes in and retreats. Tailing fish in 12–18 inches of water are a realistic target on a calm, low-light morning. Spinnerbaits and paddle-tails in natural shrimp or gold patterns are seasonally appropriate.

Flounder activity typically builds through May as water warms, with fish staging along channel drop-offs and near bay passes. Drift-fishing soft plastics along the bottom is the reliable approach. The weekend outlook will depend on whether the current offshore chop moderates — monitor the buoy feeds for a window below 2-foot seas before committing to a run past the passes.

Context

Early May is one of the most dependable fishing periods on the Alabama Gulf Coast, and a 73°F reading at NOAA buoy 42012 is right on schedule with regional historical patterns. Water temperatures in the northern Gulf typically exit the 60s in late April and cross 70°F in the first week of May — a transition that synchronizes the spring migrations of multiple species almost simultaneously.

The cobia run is the defining event of the Alabama May calendar. Unlike summer pelagic species that prefer water in the upper 70s and 80s, cobia are most catchable in the 68–76°F range, making the current reading close to optimal. Historically, the largest concentrations of cobia move through Mobile Bay's shipping channel and along the nearshore artificial reef systems between late April and Memorial Day, after which water temperatures climb past the peak bite window. On-schedule springs — which the current buoy reading suggests — tend to produce the densest cobia concentrations in the first two weeks of May.

Speckled trout in Mobile Bay follow a bimodal seasonal pattern, with spring (April–June) and fall (September–November) representing the two peak windows. The spring push coincides with post-spawn bait movement into the bay and rising water clarity, and 73°F water is historically the midpoint of that peak, not the leading edge. Anglers fishing this water in previous seasons have typically found trout spread widely across grass flats rather than concentrated in deep holes — a sign the fish are in active feeding mode rather than thermal refuge.

Coastal Angler Magazine's coverage of Mobile Bay's Jubilee phenomenon is a useful seasonal calibration point: Jubilees, while unpredictable, most often occur in summer, not spring, driven by warm-weather dissolved oxygen stratification. Their absence now is not a concern — late spring is when the bay's oxygen levels and baitfish abundance are at their healthiest, providing the ecological foundation for the quality fishing that typically follows.

No state agency reports or charter captain data were available in the current feeds to confirm whether this spring is running ahead of, behind, or precisely on historical pace.