Late-summer heat holds on the Gulf as fall migration builds

What's next

Tides set the timing this week. At NOAA CO-OPS station 8735180 the next high is 4:40 a.m. local and the next low is 4:56 p.m.; at station 8736897 the high is 5:32 a.m. and the low is 6:13 p.m. Both stations run the same shape, a morning high and an afternoon low, so the falling water covers most of the daylight hours.

Saltwater Sportsman's Gulf Coast fall coverage describes the same tide-driven pattern on the Texas-Louisiana line, with fish leaving back bays for the open Gulf as the migration begins and the tide turns to ebb. Watch the falling water from the morning high onward. The Last Quarter moon also means neap tides, so expect smaller tidal swings than during the spring-tide weeks and slower current through the passes.

If the water holds in the low 80s over the next few days, the cooling trend has not yet arrived. A sustained drop from the low 80s is the signal that fall movement has begun, and it is the reading to check first.

Context

Water in the low 80s is normal for early October along the Alabama coast. Gulf water usually holds summer warmth well into autumn and cools gradually over several weeks of shorter days and cooler nights, so readings this high do not mean the fall migration has arrived, and they do not mean it is late. Sport Fishing Mag frames the fall migration as the highlight of the fishing year, sitting between the summer doldrums and the winter lull, which fits this point in the calendar. Early October sits at the late-summer end of the seasonal sequence for this region, with the bigger movement typically building through October and into November as the water comes down. For Mobile Bay and the Gulf, the next several weeks will decide the timing, and the readings will tell you more than the calendar. Check state regulations before harvesting any fish, and confirm current limits with the state agency before heading out.