NorCal salmon bite surges as cool coastal water pushes out the bonita

What's Biting

What's Next

The temperature cooldown that Captain Davis highlighted in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater is the dominant trend shaping the near-term outlook for this coastline. With buoy 46026 reading 52°F and buoy 46013 showing winds near 8 m/s, offshore conditions warrant an early departure — NorCal afternoon wind events can build fast from the northwest, and stacking seas make mid-day runs uncomfortable. Target the pre-dawn through mid-morning window and monitor NWS point forecasts before leaving the dock.

For chinook salmon, the "vastly improved" pattern below Pigeon Point per Captain Davis is encouraging for the entire NorCal offshore fleet. Salmon tend to stack on temperature breaks and concentrate near upwelling zones that are typically active as northwest winds strengthen through May. If the cool-water trend holds into mid-week, boats running from Bodega Bay and the Farallon Islands shelf edge should find similar holding structure to what Davis described. Trolling anchovies or herring in the 20–50 fathom zone near the thermocline is the classic go-to; heavy iron jigs can also produce when fish are pinned to structure.

In SF Bay, the striped bass push is underway by mid-May most years. The waning crescent moon this week means dark pre-dawn windows — historically favorable for topwater and surface presentations near rip lines. Watch the first two hours of the incoming flood tide; bass typically stack on points and channel edges as baitfish concentrate in the current seams. Live anchovies or sardines drifted under a float are the reliable bay striper approach.

Halibut are entering their prime window for SF Bay. At 52°F, water is at the lower edge of the flatfish comfort zone, but a degree or two of warming across the week could trigger genuine activity on the sandy flats near the South Bay channel edges. A live bait rig worked slowly along the bottom — small jacksmelt or shiner perch — is the standard play. Weekend anglers should keep tabs on the afternoon wind forecast; if buoy 46013 stays elevated, plan to be off the water by noon.

Context

May is typically the heart of the spring chinook season for NorCal's offshore fleet. Ocean sport salmon seasons off central California generally open in April and run through summer, with the recreational peak historically falling in May and June when cold upwelling water and dense baitfish concentrations align along the coast.

The temperature arc Captain Davis described in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater mirrors a recurring seasonal pattern: above-average warm anomalies in early April (bonita and warm-water species appearing earlier than normal) giving way to classic cold upwelling as northwest winds strengthen through late April and May. Bonita surfacing in the fleet in early April was notably early — more typical of a late-summer south-of-the-Bay event — suggesting water temps ran warmer than usual at the season opener. The subsequent four-degree drop back toward 54°F near Pigeon Point, and buoy 46026's current 52°F reading, represent a return to conditions more in line with historical mid-May norms for this stretch, which typically runs 50–56°F during the height of the upwelling season.

Chinook salmon prefer water in the 50–57°F range, and 52°F surface temps are broadly within that sweet spot, suggesting upwelling is functioning as expected this season.

In SF Bay, striped bass historically peak in April through May as fish push in from the Delta and stage on structure ahead of spawning. May is the traditional prime window for trophy-class fish in the Bay, and the combination of moderate temperatures and building baitfish schools sets up well for the coming weeks.

Halibut in SF Bay typically see reliable spring action from May through July. At 52°F, the Bay is at the lower edge of optimal for flatfish, but incremental warming across May should sharpen the bite. Overall, the early-season warm anomaly followed by a cooldown reset puts this year broadly on a familiar NorCal spring trajectory — later than ideal for those first March and April salmon trips, but shaping up well as we move deeper into May.