Keys at 78°F: Tarpon Migration and Expanded Red Snapper Season Arrive

What's Biting

What's Next

With water temperatures at 78°F and offshore wave heights at 2.3 feet per NOAA buoy 41114, the near-term outlook for the Florida Keys is favorable across both the flats and the offshore grounds heading into the first week of May.

On the flats, the Waning Gibbous moon is still driving meaningful tidal movement. The best windows for bonefish and permit typically come during the first two hours of an incoming tide, when water pushes onto turtle grass and sand edges and fish move ahead of it. As the moon continues waning toward the new phase over the coming days, tidal swings moderate slightly — a pattern that often concentrates fish on the skinnier flats where there is less water to spread across. Prioritize early-morning pushes while light is low and fish are less wary of boat presence.

Tarpon are the marquee flats species this time of year. With water holding in the upper 70s, rolling fish should be staging on the Gulf side and working through oceanside channels in the days ahead. Calm early mornings are the prime sight-fishing window. The traditional Keys setup — live crabs or large mullet strips presented on a circle hook — applies on tidal flats and around bridge structure as fish continue their spring push.

Offshore, the most actionable development is the expanded red snapper access. Per Saltwater Sportsman and Sport Fishing Mag, federal EFP approval for 2026 gives Florida Atlantic-side anglers a 39-day season divided into two segments — a substantial increase over prior years. Nearshore ledges and reef structure in the 60–120 foot range are the standard staging grounds, with bottom rigs and live or cut bait as the proven approach. Verify current segment dates and bag limits under the EFP before departure, as exact rules may differ from prior seasons.

Mahi-mahi are worth watching as May opens. Early May typically brings the first consistent dolphin action as sargassum weed lines push into the Florida Current. Scan temperature breaks and floating debris when running offshore — with inshore temps at 78°F, the offshore gradient is likely producing weed-line concentrations within day-trip range.

Context

Late April and early May represent one of the most anticipated stretches of the Florida Keys fishing calendar. Tarpon migration is the defining event: fish typically begin showing in the Marquesas and on the Islamorada flats in late March, with peak numbers arriving through May and tapering into June. The 78°F water temperature recorded at NOAA buoy 41114 on April 26 is consistent with — or perhaps a touch ahead of — typical late-April readings, which is a positive signal for a migration already underway.

For bonefish and permit, late April into May is historically among the strongest sight-fishing periods of the year. Moderate winds, improving water clarity after spring tides, and active pre-summer feeding behavior create the conditions that draw flats anglers from across the country to the Keys. No source in this reporting cycle provides specific on-water flats intel, so treat the seasonal baseline as a starting point and consult a local captain or Keys tackle shop before departure.

The offshore red snapper story carries genuine historical weight. As Saltwater Sportsman, Sport Fishing Mag, and Anglers Journal all report, prior Florida Atlantic-side seasons were compressed into short federal windows that frustrated anglers and limited recreational data collection. The 2026 EFP pilot — 39 days across two segments — mirrors the process that successfully reformed Gulf of Mexico snapper management over the past decade and could establish a long-term blueprint for the Atlantic if data collection targets are met. For Keys offshore anglers, it simply means more time on structure than has been available in recent memory. Check current EFP guidelines for exact dates and daily limits before heading out.

Mahi-mahi typically arrive in force by early-to-mid May as the Florida Current warms and baitfish concentrate along sargassum weed lines — a pattern that holds reliably most years, making it one of the more predictable seasonal transitions on the Keys offshore calendar.