Keys fall bite warming up as summer heat finally eases

What's next

With a New Moon today, tidal movement will be strong in the coming days, and moving water is what to plan around. At station 8723970 the next high tide is predicted around 5:19 PM EDT, followed by a low near 7:54 PM EDT. At station 8724580 the next low is predicted near 4:58 PM EDT. Falling and rising tides that line up with dawn or dusk give the best combination of current and cooler surface temperatures.

If the gradual cooling ALL IN Key West describes continues, expect water temperatures to ease off the high 80s over the next couple of weeks, and feeding to stretch later into each morning. Anglers should keep the midday hours short, work shaded edges and deeper channel cuts when the sun is high, and save the shallow flats for first light and the last hour of daylight. Check state regulations before keeping any fish.

Context

Mid-October in the Florida Keys sits at the turn between the long summer pattern and the cooler season. Water temperatures in the high 80s are on the warm side for the date, and the first real cold fronts usually arrive later in the fall. Each front tends to drop surface temperatures a few degrees and switches fish on in the shallows, so the seasonal shift is gradual rather than sudden. Redfish and snook generally respond to those changes by moving more freely onto the flats during moving tides, while the hottest afternoons remain a slower window.