Keys fishery eyes seasonal turn as summer heat finally breaks

What's next

Expect bigger tidal swings than usual this week with the moon new. At one tracked station, today's tide runs through a high near 2:41 PM EDT before ebbing to a low by about 6:07 PM EDT, a multi-hour window of moving water worth planning an afternoon trip around. A second nearby station shows its own low arriving closer to 3:25 PM EDT, so the exact tide stage will vary somewhat depending on where in the Keys you're fishing.

If the cooling trend ALL IN Key West describes holds through the weekend, water temperatures should start easing back from these upper-80s readings. That kind of shift after a long hot stretch typically perks fish activity back up, so the next few days are worth watching closely as more reports come in behind this first signal of the turn.

Context

Early October sits at the hinge of the Keys calendar. Summer's heat and water conditions are still lingering, but this is usually when the flats and reef begin trending toward the cooler, more comfortable fall-into-winter conditions the region is known for. A new moon adds to that transition, typically bringing some of the stronger tidal exchange of the lunar cycle. Bud n' Mary's seasonal reporting through the year has tracked that same rhythm, with a hot, active summer stretch giving way to the calmer conditions that carry into the Keys' winter visitor season.