Keys water holds near 87°F as fall bite builds

What's next

Tide timing gives the clearest plan today. Station 8724580 shows a high at 16:41 UTC, about 12:41 PM EDT, and a low at 21:27 UTC, about 5:27 PM EDT. Station 8723970 shows a low at 12:54 UTC, about 8:54 AM EDT, and a high at 22:09 UTC, about 6:09 PM EDT. That puts a falling tide through the morning and a rising tide again into the evening on the second station.

With water this warm, fish tend to feed hardest at first light and again in the last hours of daylight. Midday heat pushes most inshore fish toward moving water and shade. A waxing crescent moon means darker nights and little moonlight influence, so tide movement matters more than moon position this week.

If the cooler air ALL IN Key West describes keeps arriving, expect water temperatures to ease gradually and feeding to spread across more of the day. Watch for the first stretch of overnight lows, since that is usually when fall activity picks up on the flats. Check local marine forecasts before heading out.

Context

Mid-October in the Florida Keys is a transition period. Summer heat lingers, but the first fronts of the season begin to take the edge off, and the fishery shifts from its warm-water summer pattern toward the fall and winter run. Water in the upper 80s is on the warm side of typical for the date, so the real turn is likely still a few weeks off. Anglers planning fall and winter trips are generally better served by the weeks that follow the first sustained cool-down.