Keys water holds warm as fall fishing starts to turn on
Water around the Keys is still running very warm, with CO-OPS stations 8724580 and 8723970 reading 86.9°F and 86.5°F this morning. That is summer-level heat in mid-October, and it keeps fish metabolism high and bait active. ALL IN Key West notes the weather is finally starting to break and the heat of summer is letting up a little, with the captain back on the water after a September break and calling for cooler temperatures and hotter fishing. Saltwater Sportsman points out that the fall mullet run is under way along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, typically running from September into November. Coastal Angler Magazine readers are posting bull redfish this month, including a 28.5 inch fish from Yankeetown on Oct 5 and a 42 inch Red Drum from Sebastian Inlet, a reminder that redfish are a fall target on both coasts of Florida.
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Expect the first real cooling to be gradual. With water near 87°F, the best bite windows should stay tied to the edges of the day, when temperatures ease and fish feed more freely. Early morning and the last hour of light are the periods to plan around.
Tides give you clear timing today. At station 8724580 the next low falls around 6:43 AM EDT and the next high around 1:20 PM EDT. At station 8723970 the next high lands near 3:21 AM EDT and the next low near 9:38 AM EDT. Moving water around those turns is typically when flats and channel edges fish best, so build your morning around the tide change nearest your spot.
The waxing crescent moon means darker nights and modest tidal range compared with the full and new moon phases, so the strongest current pushes are still a few days away. As each cold front reaches the state and the water sheds a few degrees, we should see feeding pick up, especially near bait concentrations tied to the mullet movement.
Context
Mid-October in the Florida Keys is a transition period. Summer patterns are still fading while the fall and winter season ramps up. Water in the upper 80s is on the warm side of normal for this point in the calendar, so the shift to cooler-season fishing may arrive a bit later than usual. Bait movement is typically the first signal that fall is taking hold, followed by more consistent action as nights cool. Check state regulations before harvesting any fish, since seasons and limits change.
Synthesized from real-time NOAA buoy data, USGS stream gauges, and current reports across regional fishing blogs, captain updates, and angler forums. Check local regulations before keeping fish. Never trust a single source for a trip decision.
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