Keys water stays warm as redfish and snook hold the fall pattern
Water temperatures around the Keys are still summer-warm. NOAA CO-OPS station 8723970 read 87.8°F and station 8724580 read 86.4°F at midday. That is warm enough to push fish toward the cooler edges of the day, so early mornings and late afternoons are the windows worth planning around. ALL IN Key West reports the heat of summer finally letting up and says the fall and winter bite is shaping up, with the captain returning to the water after a September break. Coastal Angler Magazine's October roundup from the Martin County side of Florida features a 31-inch snook caught on a live bait early in the day, a reminder that snook are feeding on the morning shift this month.
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With a New Moon today, expect strong tidal movement over the next few days. Tide swings are the main trigger for feeding on the flats, so plan around the moving water rather than the slack.
Predicted tides from NOAA CO-OPS station 8723970 put the next high at 20:28 UTC (4:28 PM EDT), followed by a low at 23:17 UTC (7:17 PM EDT). Station 8724580 shows a low at 20:28 UTC (4:28 PM EDT). That sets up a falling tide into the evening, which is the usual window for fish to move off the flats and stage along channel edges and mangrove shorelines. Late-afternoon outgoing water is the one to target today.
If the trend of easing summer heat continues, as ALL IN Key West describes, water temperatures should slowly slide off these peaks and fish should spread out and feed for longer stretches of the day. Until then, keep sessions short and early, and handle released fish quickly in water this warm.
Context
Mid October is a transition period in the Keys. Summer heat is loosening its grip, baitfish are active, and the shift toward the cooler-season pattern begins, so conditions are right on schedule for the fall run. Water in the high 80s is still above what many inshore species prefer, so the bite tends to stay concentrated around dawn, dusk and moving tides until the first real cool fronts arrive. Check state regulations before keeping any fish, since seasons and size limits for snook and redfish vary by region and can change.
Synthesized from real-time NOAA buoy data, USGS stream gauges, and current reports across regional fishing blogs, captain updates, and angler forums. Check local regulations before keeping fish. Never trust a single source for a trip decision.
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