Redfish Working Keys Flats as Fall Tide Rhythm Settles In
Water temperatures across the Florida Keys remain firmly in the mid-to-upper 80s this week, with NOAA CO-OPS station 8724580 reading 86.2°F and station 8723970 at 86.9°F as of this morning. Those numbers are still full summer-pattern for the flats and reef, and they're keeping the inshore bite tuned up heading into October. Salt Strong's latest inshore report notes that elevated water levels across the Southeast are pushing fish like redfish off their usual spots and into flooded shorelines, grass, and creek mouths, giving them far more real estate to work and making them tougher to pin down on a given tide. On the charter side, ALL IN Key West says the summer heat is finally starting to break, a shift that typically signals the start of the fall transition anglers wait on in the Keys.
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Expect the warm readings to hold through the next few days; a drop into the low 80s or high 70s would be the real signal that the fall pattern is taking hold, and that's still likely weeks out at these temperatures. Redfish working flooded structure per Salt Strong's report should stay active as long as water levels stay elevated, so target the edges of grass flats and mangrove shorelines rather than open water.
Tide timing is worth planning around this week: the flats-side station (8724580) puts high tide near 9:09 AM ET with the low following around 2:52 PM, while the reef-side station (8723970) runs roughly four hours behind, high near 1:39 PM and low by 5:31 PM. That spread gives anglers working both zones in one day two separate tide windows rather than one. With the Waning Crescent moon this week, expect modest tidal swings rather than the bigger push that comes around new or full moon.
Context
Mid-to-upper-80s water in early October sits on the late side of the seasonal cooldown for the Keys, which typically holds onto summer warmth longer than the mainland coast. The region is at the early edge of its fall transition window, the stretch when captains like ALL IN Key West start watching for the first real heat break. Flats fishing in the Keys tends to stay productive through this shoulder period, with structure and tide timing mattering more than temperature until a sustained cool-down arrives.
Synthesized from real-time NOAA buoy data, USGS stream gauges, and current reports across regional fishing blogs, captain updates, and angler forums. Check local regulations before keeping fish. Never trust a single source for a trip decision.
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