35-inch holdover striper hits Merrimack as shad bite builds

What's Biting

What's Next

With USGS gauge 01073500 reading 119 cfs early Thursday, the Merrimack should stay in fishable shape through the weekend barring a significant rain event. At moderate flows like this, migratory fish predictably stack in defined holding water — behind boulders, at pool tails, and wherever a side channel delivers a slight temperature or clarity break to the main stem. Wading anglers and bank fishers have the best access to those seams right now.

The shad run is the most actionable bite on the river. The Fisherman — South Shore MA to ME reported North Andover as the hot zone with numbers "slowly picking up speed" as of this week. Expect intensity to build through mid-May as water temperatures continue to climb. Small shad darts in chartreuse or pink, fished on a slow swing across the current, are the time-tested presentation at moderate Merrimack flows. A ¾- to 1-ounce casting sinker rig with a willow-leaf style blade — the setup The Fisherman — New England Freshwater noted is moving fast at Connecticut River shad shops this week — translates well to Merrimack conditions too.

The holdover striper at the Merrimack mouth is a meaningful early signal. On The Water's May 1 striper migration map shows the post-spawn push from the Chesapeake snowballing northward — fresh migratory fish could plausibly reach the lower Merrimack within 10–14 days. When that wave arrives, paddletail shad presentations at dawn, mirroring the technique that fooled last Sunday's holdover, will be the opening move. Fishing the river mouth and lower tidal pools during the first two hours of daylight maximizes contact odds.

On Lake Winnipesaukee, the smallmouth spawn should be winding down on rocky shoals in the 6–12 foot range this week. Post-spawn fish typically rest for 24–48 hours before transitioning into aggressive foraging mode. By the weekend, drop-shot rigs and small swimbaits worked slowly along spawning flats are the logical presentation as fish reload — the classic post-spawn pattern Tactical Bassin outlines for early May. Topwater at first light over shallow structure remains worth a shot if fish haven't pushed deep yet.

The waning gibbous moon will dim further each morning, gradually improving low-light window quality through the weekend. Plan river sessions for the two hours bracketing first light, and Winnipesaukee sessions for the final hour before dark, when post-spawn bass tend to push back toward structure.

Context

Early May is one of the most dynamic transition weeks in the NH freshwater calendar, and conditions this season appear to be running close to historical norms for the Merrimack and Winnipesaukee drainages.

The shad run on the Merrimack typically peaks between mid-May and early June, depending on water temperature and river flow. The Fisherman — South Shore MA to ME's "slowly picking up" characterization — with North Andover already producing — puts the 2026 run right on schedule. At 119 cfs, the Merrimack is running at a modest late-spring baseline consistent with the post-snowmelt pattern for this part of the watershed. Significantly higher flows in early May can delay shad staging and push fish into slack backwaters; this year's moderate reading is favorable for accessible river fishing.

Striped bass in the freshwater reaches of the Merrimack are more variable and harder to time. Holdovers — fish that lingered in the lower river rather than completing a full southward migration — occasionally show through late April and into early May, which is precisely what The Fisherman — South Shore MA to ME describes. The main migratory push at the river mouth historically arrives by late May, so one holdover report at this date is early but entirely within the normal range of variation. No direct testimony confirmed fresh migratory fish as of this report.

Lake Winnipesaukee's smallmouth bass spawn is typically tied to water temperature, commencing once the shallows stabilize in the mid-50s°F — usually late April through mid-May. No angler reports specific to Winnipesaukee were available in this week's data pull, so the lake picture here is inferred from seasonal norms rather than fresh testimony. Treat any Winnipesaukee guidance in this report as a starting framework; check local sources for real-time updates before heading up to the big lake.

No comparative signal was available to assess whether 2026 is running meaningfully early or late relative to multi-year averages for this region. The data is consistent with a normal-to-slightly-early spring progression.