50°F Water and Incoming Bunker Signal NJ Striper Peak at Raritan Bay

What's Biting

What's Next

The 50°F reading from NOAA buoy 44065 is a meaningful benchmark: water at this temperature in early May typically marks the shift from transient migrant stripers to resident feeders willing to commit to structure and bait. With On The Water's May 1st migration map confirming post-spawn females pushing north out of the Chesapeake, expect the next 48–72 hours to bring increasing numbers of quality fish working the rips, structure, and bunker pods around Sandy Hook and into Raritan Bay.

Bunker (menhaden) are the key variable to watch. The Fisherman (Northeast)'s Long Island forecast reports schools of bunker actively holding stripers in position across the western bays — once those pods appear in Raritan Bay, the bite typically concentrates quickly. Watch for birds working over bait and surface disturbances in the first two hours of light as reliable tells before committing to a specific drift.

Full Moon tides this weekend will generate strong, well-defined rip currents along Sandy Hook and through the bay's inlet zones. This is a prime timing window: stripers ambush baitfish in fast water, and anglers working the ebb off Sandy Hook stand the best odds for larger fish. Per The Fisherman (Northeast)'s Long Island report, the window around the tide turn — not peak flow — is producing the most consistent action, so plan to be on the water 45 minutes before the change.

Fluke season opens Monday, May 4th per The Fisherman (Northeast). At 50°F water, flounder will still be working into shallower structure; early-season drifts over sandy bottom near channel edges around Sandy Hook typically produce the first consistent action. Light bucktail-and-squid combos drifted slow are the standard early-season setup — check NJ state regulations for current size and bag limits before heading out.

With wind running at 9 m/s (near 20 mph) as of Sunday afternoon, bay-side drift fishing will be more productive than exposed surf positions. Watch for any moderation early in the week that could open up additional structure and wreck options.

Context

Early May in Raritan Bay and along Sandy Hook traditionally marks the spring season's hinge point — when migrating stripers stop passing through and start feeding in earnest, and when a cluster of inshore species comes online within days of each other.

The 50°F water temperature recorded by NOAA buoy 44065 on May 3rd is consistent with normal early-May ranges for this stretch of New Jersey coastline. Low-50s water is the conventional signal for slot-size stripers to make sustained appearances, with the larger 40-inch-plus fish that follow bunker schools typically arriving within a week or two of that benchmark.

On The Water's May 1st migration map, tracking post-spawn females pressing north out of the Chesapeake, suggests the season is arriving on a normal schedule — not notably early or late for the first week of May. The Fisherman (Northeast)'s New England forecast from April 30th noted fish already ranging 25–40 inches in Narragansett Bay with 'a few larger bass in the mix,' a pattern that historically precedes a similar push down the Jersey coast by a few days to a week.

NJ's fluke season opening on May 4th is on its typical calendar per The Fisherman (Northeast), following NOAA Fisheries regulatory confirmation. The first two to three weeks of May traditionally produce smaller flounder as the population settles into summer haunts; patient drifts over sandy bottom typically outperform spot-chasing in the early run.

Tautog spring activity is consistent with The Fisherman (Northeast)'s observation that togging is 'hitting its spring stride with good catches from shallow water' across the region — a pattern that typically extends to NJ boulder fields and rocky structure at this same time of year.

Overall, spring 2026 appears to be tracking on a normal timetable for Raritan Bay — no cold-water delays evident in the buoy record, and regulatory certainty confirmed for the key target species heading into peak season.