Connecticut River shad run building north

What's Biting

What's Next

With the Connecticut River shad run confirmed active and building from Connecticut northward, and 265 cfs recorded at USGS gauge 01135300 on the morning of May 7, the next 7–10 days should see the migration front push into Vermont's lower river reaches in earnest. Shad respond strongly to water temperature and photoperiod — as long as flows remain moderate and no major rain event spikes turbidity, anglers working deeper runs and pool tails below natural barriers should see the bite improve daily. The Fisherman — New England Freshwater reports that willow-leaf Steaves Leaves spoons on ¾- to 1-ounce casting sinkers are the go-to setup downstream in Connecticut and Massachusetts; that same rig translates directly to Vermont river water.

Bass are navigating what Tactical Bassin describes as the "post-spawn transition" — a window where some fish linger in shallow cover while others begin staging for early-summer patterns. On Lake Champlain, where the shallow northern bays and weedy flats warm quickly under May sun, expect largemouth in post-spawn recovery mode along weed edges, dock pilings, and emerging vegetation. Smallmouth on mid-lake rock points and humps are typically accessible once the spawn closes; tube jigs, drop-shots, and shallow crankbaits are productive approaches at this stage.

Trout opportunity remains consistent through New England's spring stocking programs, per The Fisherman — New England Freshwater. Angler interest has been shifting toward shad and bass, but stocked trout in accessible river sections and state ponds are still responding well to worms, PowerBait, and in-line spinners — a reliable backup on slow shad days.

The waning gibbous moon on May 7 still carries enough gravitational pull to activate low-light feeding windows. Plan shad and bass sessions around dawn and the final hour before dark for best results this weekend. Watch for air temperature trends over the coming week — once Connecticut River water temps in Vermont crack the 55°F threshold, shad activity and bass aggression typically jump noticeably.

Context

A flow of 265 cfs at USGS gauge 01135300 on May 7 is consistent with late-spring conditions after the April snowmelt peak — generally normal for Vermont's Connecticut River watershed at this point in the calendar. No water temperature data was available from that gauge, which limits direct season-over-season comparison, but early May typically finds Connecticut River water in the low-to-mid 50s°F in Vermont, gaining a degree or two each week as daylight lengthens.

The shad run's timing tracks closely with historical expectations. Migration fronts typically reach southern Vermont sometime in mid-to-late May, depending on how quickly the river warms. Both The Fisherman — Connecticut and The Fisherman — New England Freshwater reporting an active, building run with rapidly increasing fish counts in Connecticut during the first week of May suggests the 2026 season is progressing normally — perhaps fractionally ahead of recent cold-spring years, but not dramatically early. Vermont anglers who begin scouting the lower river now are positioning themselves well ahead of the peak.

Lake Champlain follows its own seasonal rhythm, largely independent of the river system. Early May is classically a transition point: walleye typically complete spawning on rocky shoals and shift to post-spawn staging in 10–20 feet of water; northern pike have vacated the vegetated shallows they spawned in weeks earlier; largemouth bass are either on beds or just coming off them depending on how quickly the shallower bays accumulated heat this spring. Without direct on-the-water reports from Champlain in this cycle, characterizing whether 2026 is running early or late on the lake is not possible — only that the calendar timing is squarely where it should be.

MidCurrent noted the fifth annual Battenkill Fly Fishing & Arts Festival ran in Arlington, Vermont on April 30–May 2, a small but meaningful signal that Vermont's fly-fishing community was actively on the water right at the start of May.