Chinook Salmon Improving as NorCal Upwelling Cools the Coast

What's Biting

What's Next

With water temps locked at 54-55°F and the upwelling pattern described by Western Outdoor News — Saltwater showing no signs of reversing, salmon conditions along the NorCal coast should hold productive through the coming weekend. Allen Bushnell's report from Monterey describes the current upwelling as a response to sustained northwest winds, a pattern that typically persists well into June in this region, keeping baitfish schools near the surface and salmon within reach of sport vessels working out of Half Moon Bay and Bodega Bay ports.

The 5.6-foot swell reading at buoy 46013 is the key near-term variable to watch. Current light winds of 2-3 m/s per both buoys are encouraging, and if those hold, early mornings may offer the calmest offshore windows before afternoon sea breeze fills in. Boats targeting salmon below Pigeon Point, as Captain Jared Davis of Half Moon Bay Sport Fishing has been doing, should be positioned to fish productive water when swell settles. Watch for windows when seas ease below 4 feet for smaller vessels, and pay attention to swell direction shifts that can create rough cross-chop even in lighter winds.

First Quarter moon this week produces moderate tidal movement. While not as extreme as the push around a full or new moon, these tidal flows are enough to concentrate anchovies and other forage on current seams inside the bay. For striped bass, tidal transitions, especially the outgoing tide when baitfish get swept out of coves and shallows, tend to be the most productive windows. Dawn and dusk on the outgoing tide over sandy structure or near channel edges are worth prioritizing over the weekend.

Rockfish out of Bodega Bay should also benefit from the nutrient-rich upwelling water Bushnell describes. Cool water sustaining dense krill and anchovy schools creates a reliable target zone on hard bottom structures north of San Francisco. Pacific halibut fishing in the bay typically improves through June as fish settle into feeding patterns on incoming tides over sandy flats. Conditions are aligning seasonally for them to show up in force, though no active charter or shop reports confirm a halibut bite is on just yet.

Context

Late May is typically one of the strongest windows for Chinook salmon along the Northern California coast, and the 2026 season appears to be tracking that pattern after a slow start. Western Outdoor News — Saltwater's Allen Bushnell puts the current outlook in stark relief, writing that "many of us almost forgot what it is like to have a real salmon season along the Central Coast," suggesting recent seasons have underperformed. The recent cooling, 4-5 degrees in roughly a week per Bushnell, is exactly the kind of upwelling-driven reset that historically correlates with productive NorCal salmon fishing.

Buoy 46026's 55°F reading sits within the range that Chinook salmon favor for active near-shore feeding. Captain Jared Davis's Half Moon Bay report for Western Outdoor News — Saltwater places temps at 54°F below Pigeon Point, consistent with a favorable salmon window. In years when upwelling establishes firmly before Memorial Day, it typically persists through June, keeping bait and salmon accessible to sport vessels from Half Moon Bay north to Bodega Bay.

For SF Bay species, late May historically marks a transition point. Striped bass typically move into the bay in stronger numbers through late May and June, feeding on schooling baitfish ahead of the summer peak. Pacific halibut traditionally see peak activity in the bay during May through July. Rockfish action out of Bodega Bay tends to be reliable year-round but benefits from the upwelling-driven nutrient flush Bushnell describes.

No specific year-over-year comparative data is available in this cycle's intel beyond Bushnell's note about recent poor salmon seasons, but the combination of on-schedule water temps and confirmed captains fishing salmon productively below Half Moon Bay points to a stronger season than the coast has seen recently.