Chinook Salmon Stage a Comeback as Upwelling Cools the NorCal Coast

What's Biting

What's Next

The cold-water regime behind this salmon uptick: northwest-wind-driven upwelling with surface temps locked in the low-to-mid 50s. Per Western Outdoor News — Saltwater's current reports, this pattern typically holds for days to weeks once established during late May along the NorCal coast, and the productive corridor from Half Moon Bay down through the Pigeon Point area should stay active as long as northwest flow continues. Any shift toward southerly winds or an extended calm could relax upwelling, temporarily warm the surface, and push Chinook deeper or scatter bait. Check the local wind forecast closely before committing to an offshore run.

With seas at a manageable 3.9 feet per NOAA buoy 46013 and light winds at present, conditions are comfortable for offshore work. Early departures tend to produce the best Chinook action: fish hold shallower and feed more aggressively in low light before afternoon sea breeze builds chop. We're seeing the classic late-May color-change setup: cold upwelled green water butting against warmer blue surface water. Troll near that thermal boundary, keying on depths where bait concentrations appear on the sounder.

North of the Bay, the Bodega Bay grounds typically benefit from the same upwelling pattern. The offshore water northwest of the bay mouth historically holds Chinook when cool water is locked in. Check local charter departure reports as the weekend approaches for specific travel direction.

Inside SF Bay, the First Quarter moon is trending toward a stronger tidal phase over the next week, which historically energizes striped bass feeding along current seams, rip lines, and structure points. Late May is one of the bay's most reliable months for stripers. Dawn windows on the incoming tide, with topwater lures worked across current edges, tend to produce aggressively in low light.

California halibut are entering their late-spring prime along the bay and nearshore beaches. Slow drifts over sandy bottom near channel edges and the shallower flats of the Central and South Bay are the standard approach from late May onward, with live anchovies as the preferred bait. Together, striped bass and halibut give inshore anglers a full card while offshore boats chase Chinook.

Context

NorCal's Chinook salmon fishery has endured a punishing stretch in recent years. Seasons in 2023 and 2024 were severely curtailed or closed entirely due to critically low Sacramento River fall-run Chinook populations, leaving many coastside captains without a viable target species for consecutive summers. Bushnell's observation in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater says it plainly: 'many of us almost forgot what it's like to have a real salmon season along the Central Coast.' The current setup, with active fishing confirmed below Pigeon Point and encouraging conditions from Half Moon Bay to Monterey, reads as a meaningful recovery signal rather than a routine spring bump.

Oceanographically, late May is when NorCal upwelling typically peaks. Persistent northwest winds push surface water offshore and draw cold, nutrient-dense water up from depth, fueling plankton blooms that support the baitfish Chinook need. The buoy 46026 reading of 53°F is well within the optimal range for salmon holding in the upper water column; temperatures above 58°F tend to push them down or scatter them offshore. The transition Captain Davis described, from 58°F at the April opener to the mid-50s now, is precisely the seasonal threshold NorCal charter captains watch for each spring.

For SF Bay species, conditions appear on schedule. Striped bass and California halibut reliably peak in the bay from late May through June, and no anomalous signals appeared in this week's intel feeds to suggest an early or delayed start. Their 'Active' status in this report reflects seasonal norms and temperature context rather than confirmed live catches: no direct SF Bay reports were available this week, so checking with a local tackle shop before a targeted trip remains a smart step.