Improving salmon bite builds along the NorCal coast as cold upwelling locks in

What's Biting

What's Next

The cold upwelling signature at buoy 46026 — 49°F at the offshore San Francisco reading — is characteristic of the strong northwest wind-driven upwelling that intensifies through mid-May along this stretch of coast. As long as the northwesterlies hold at the levels NOAA buoy 46013 is recording (16 m/s, roughly 31 knots), cold, nutrient-rich water will continue pushing along the shelf edge. For salmon anglers, that means bait concentrations — anchovies and sardines stacking along temperature breaks — should remain in play through the coming days.

The winds at the Bodega buoy are a caution flag for smaller vessels. Offshore Chinook trips out of Bodega Bay and the San Francisco fleet should monitor marine forecasts closely; morning windows before afternoon thermal winds build are typically the most workable. Nearshore rockfish anglers fishing structure inside 30 fathoms may find more manageable sea conditions than those running well offshore.

The new moon as of today sets up some of the strongest tidal exchanges of the month. Bigger water movement through the Golden Gate and across the bay tends to activate striped bass holding on structure and inside deep channels. Plan around the two-hour windows bracketing each tide turn — peak flood and peak ebb — for the most consistent action. Halibut on bay sand flats should respond to the same tidal push; anchovies or live smelt fished near bottom on the incoming tide are a reliable presentation during this lunar phase.

If the cooling trend Captain Davis flagged in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater continues northward, expect Chinook to stage progressively closer to the beach along the Sonoma–Marin coast as fish seek temperature breaks along the nearshore shelf. Bodega Bay boats may find salmon within shorter runs of the harbor entrance. Watch for any wind-relaxation window midweek: a brief surface calm often triggers topwater striped bass activity near the Marin headlands and inside the bay at first light, with surface plugs and swimbaits worked across tide lines.

Context

Mid-May is historically one of the stronger windows on the NorCal saltwater calendar. The recreational Chinook salmon season off San Francisco and Bodega Bay typically opens in April and builds through May and June as fish push closer to shore ahead of their eventual river runs. Water temps in the 49–54°F range — as seen at NOAA buoy 46026 and reported near Half Moon Bay by Western Outdoor News — Saltwater — sit squarely in the preferred band for Chinook. The colder end of that range tends to concentrate fish near the surface and along thermal edges, which favors trolling presentations.

The bonito departure noted by Captain Davis — warm-water visitors that showed up unusually early when April temps briefly touched 58°F near Pigeon Point — is a telling seasonal marker. Their exit as temperatures dropped confirms that upwelling is now dominating surface conditions, which is the normal mid-May pattern for this coast. The transition from mixed warm-cold surface water to persistent cold upwelling typically signals the salmon bite's most reliable mid-season window.

Striped bass in San Francisco Bay typically build through late spring, with fish moving in from the Delta and Sacramento River system and distributing across the bay and adjacent beaches. By mid-May, the inside bay fishery is usually well-established. A new moon phase at this point in the season aligns with conditions that historically produce strong current-fed bites in the bay's deeper channels and along structure.

No direct year-over-year comparative angler reports are available in the current data feeds. Based on environmental conditions alone — 49°F offshore, strong northwest flow, new moon — this reads as on-schedule to slightly cool for mid-May, consistent with a well-developed upwelling year rather than an anomalously warm one.