NorCal Chinook Picking Up as Cool Water Returns to the Coast

What's Biting

What's Next

The dominant story for the next 48–72 hours is the offshore swell. NOAA buoy 46013, positioned in the Bodega Canyon area, logged 16.4-foot wave heights early Sunday morning alongside sustained winds of 16 m/s — conditions that make bar crossings out of Bodega Bay dangerous and offshore runs impractical for most private boats. Charter operations running larger hulls may find protected grounds, but expect limited-access conditions to persist through at least Monday before any meaningful improvement.

When the ocean does lie down, the setup for NorCal ocean salmon looks strong. Captain Jared Davis of the Salty Lady, per Western Outdoor News — Saltwater, called the bite below Pigeon Point 'vastly improved,' crediting the four-degree water-temperature drop from 58°F to 54°F since the April 11 opener. Water in the 50–55°F band — right where NOAA buoy 46026 currently reads — is historically prime Chinook territory. Trolling deep-running anchovies or hoochies along the shelf break and canyon edges is the standard approach for this fishery; as the swell moderates, those same productive breaks should continue to hold fish.

The New Moon this weekend brings more pronounced tidal exchange. Stronger flood and ebb cycles push baitfish through Bay mouths and along coastal upwelling zones, concentrating salmon and striped bass during early-morning windows. If conditions allow a mid-week run, plan around the flood tide surge in the hour before and after sunrise.

Within SF Bay itself, May is historically the heart of the spring striper push, and the Bay offers considerably calmer water than the offshore grounds right now. No charter or shop intel was available this cycle to confirm current Bay striper activity specifically — check local tackle shops before launching for the latest on where schools are holding.

Context

Mid-May is historically one of the stronger entry points for the NorCal ocean salmon fishery. Spring upwelling — driven by northwest winds that push surface water offshore and draw cold, nutrient-rich water up from depth — typically cools coastal surface temps from April highs into the 50–55°F band by mid-month. The 50°F reading at NOAA buoy 46026 and the 54°F report from below Pigeon Point, per Western Outdoor News — Saltwater, are consistent with what anglers historically expect at this point in the season.

The fact that temperatures were running at 58°F at the April 11 season opener before cooling back fits the typical spring progression: a warmer-water window in late March through early April, followed by the onset of persistent upwelling as coastal winds strengthen. When that transition happens on or before mid-May, the season historically performs well through Memorial Day weekend and into June.

Without year-over-year comparative data from the current intel feeds, it is not possible to say definitively whether 2026 is running early, late, or on schedule. What the current signals suggest — 'vastly improved' bite per the Half Moon Bay fleet and water temps landing squarely in the Chinook comfort zone — is that the main-event coastal salmon window appears to be opening on roughly normal timing. Anglers planning weekend trips should monitor NOAA marine forecasts closely; May swell events on this coast can hold for several days before breaking, and launching into deteriorating conditions on this stretch of coastline carries real risk.