NorCal Chinook Surge as Upwelling Cools the Coast for Late-May Run

What's Biting

What's Next

The salmon outlook for the SF Bay corridor and Bodega Head area looks increasingly favorable heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Per Western Outdoor News — Saltwater, the catalyst has been northwest winds driving cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface through upwelling, a process that seeds the food chain from krill up through baitfish and into Chinook territory. Once those conditions lock in, salmon fishing along the NorCal coast typically builds momentum over one to two weeks rather than dropping off abruptly.

Captain Jared Davis of the Salty Lady out of Half Moon Bay Sport Fishing put it plainly: the water's character changed noticeably when temps slid from 58°F down to the mid-50s range, now confirmed by NOAA buoy 46026 at 55°F. Trolling in that 52-56°F temperature break, where cool upwelled water meets warmer offshore surface water, is the historically productive zone for Chinook. Anglers should target any visible temperature lines or color changes in the water column and stay mobile until they find the transition.

For Bodega Bay and the waters north of the Golden Gate, expect similar upwelling-driven improvement. With buoy 46013 showing near-calm winds overnight, conditions for running to productive grounds look manageable for at least the next day. Early morning departures, before afternoon northwest winds fill in, will offer the cleanest rides and the most consistent trolling presentations.

The First Quarter moon on May 25 supports moderate tidal movement rather than the extreme swings of full or new moon periods. For Bay Area striped bass anglers, this can translate to steadier bite windows. Look for morning and evening pushes on the incoming tide near bay structure rather than chasing a hard tidal peak.

Keep a close eye on wind forecasts through the weekend. The same northwest winds fueling the upwelling can build into uncomfortable afternoon chop offshore. The standard local strategy in late May is to be back at the dock by midday. If northwest winds intensify beyond comfortable offshore thresholds, interior Bay and Bodega Harbor spots for striped bass and halibut make solid backup options.

Context

Late May is historically a transitional moment along the Northern California coast. The sport salmon season typically finds its early-summer footing right around this window, with upwelling-driven water temperature drops in May serving as the classic trigger. The tone in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater is telling: Allen Bushnell notes that 'many of us almost forgot what it is like to have a real salmon season along the Central Coast,' signaling a stretch of lean years before this season's improvement. That context suggests 2026's Chinook movement is tracking as an upgrade relative to recent seasons rather than simply landing on schedule.

The 55°F reading from NOAA buoy 46026 is squarely in the productive salmon temperature band for this region. In typical late-May years, Bodega and Marin coast waters average in the 53-58°F range, so conditions are not exceptional, but they are correctly positioned.

Striped bass in San Francisco Bay historically peak in spring and again in fall, with May representing the tail end of the productive spring push before fish distribute more widely through the estuary and coastal waters. No current-week intel specifically addresses Bay stripers, which may simply reflect angler attention shifting toward the offshore salmon bite rather than any downturn in the fishery.

Rockfish and lingcod on nearshore reefs are available year-round from Bodega to the Golden Gate, with late spring generally being a solid window before intense summer upwelling can muddy inshore water quality. No reports this week call out rockfish directly, so conditions are assumed to be in their normal seasonal range.

Overall, the dominant story for Northern California this week is the salmon fishery, and the convergence of buoy data and on-the-water reports suggests it is arriving on schedule, or slightly ahead of where recent years have set expectations.