NorCal Salmon Season Surges as Upwelling Cools the Outer Coast

What's Biting

What's Next

The northwest winds logged at NOAA buoy 46026 (7 m/s) and NOAA buoy 46013 (9 m/s) are actively driving upwelling along the shelf, and sustained upwelling typically needs 48–72 hours to fully concentrate baitfish along the thermal boundary. That means the salmon bite could actually improve from already-elevated levels before any wind pattern shift disrupts the setup. As krill and anchovies stack along the 50°F rip line where cold upwelled green water meets warmer offshore blue, trollers should work that color change methodically. Flasher-and-hoochie combos and whole anchovies trolled at 20–60 feet are the standard approach for these conditions — and the most productive stretch will be along the thermal edge, not in the uniform cold water itself.

If the northwest wind event follows a typical 3–4-day cycle before a brief calm arrives, a better-weather window could open toward the weekend. That would allow smaller trailered boats currently sidelined by 9-knot-plus conditions at buoy 46013 to reach outer bank structure out of Bodega Bay. Monitor that buoy: when readings ease below 5 m/s, the shelf opens to a wider range of vessels. The calm-after-blow period can also produce a short window of pelagic activity at the upwelling plume's edge, though any bluefin or albacore possibility remains speculative this early in the season.

The waxing crescent moon this week means moderate tidal exchanges — enough movement to activate the Bay's striped bass population without the chaotic rips that accompany a full moon. Dawn incoming tides are the prime striped bass window: bait pushes through the Gate with the flood, concentrating fish on structure just inside the Bay mouth. Get there before the sea breeze builds and surface conditions deteriorate, typically by mid-morning. Topwater and surface-iron presentations are worth the predawn alarm when bass are actively keying on the incoming bait push.

For halibut on Bay flats, drift presentations with live anchovies or 4–5-inch swimbaits over sandy bottom on the ebb should remain productive through the week. The moderate water temperature keeps fish actively feeding before the Bay warms into the mid-60s later in summer — this is a prime two-week window before conditions shift.

Rockfish anglers targeting offshore pinnacles and reefs out of Bodega Bay should find fish stacked near structure in the cold, oxygenated upwelling water. Dropper loops with squid or cut mackerel fished close to the bottom are typically effective when water runs in the 50°F range. Check current state regulations before retaining any rockfish — bag limits and species-specific rules typically require current-season verification.

Context

May is historically the heart of the spring Chinook season along the NorCal coast — but it hasn't always felt that way in recent years. California's ocean salmon fishery endured emergency restrictions and outright closures tied to Sacramento River run collapses, leaving the coast essentially salmon-depleted for stretches that made routine spring productivity feel like a distant memory. Allen Bushnell's candid remark in Western Outdoor News — Saltwater — that many anglers had "almost forgot what is like to have a real salmon season" — puts the low bar of recent seasons in plain terms without embellishment.

By historical benchmarks, 50°F at the Bay approach in mid-to-late May is exactly where the fishery wants to be. Chinook hold and feed most aggressively in the 48–56°F range, and the northwest upwelling cycle is a signature of late spring along this stretch of coast — part of the annual rhythm as the Pacific High strengthens and prevailing winds lock in from the northwest. In productive years, salmon concentrate along the thermal break with predictable reliability, and the corridor from Bodega Bay south through Half Moon Bay is among the most dependable spring trolling grounds on the West Coast.

The current setup — 50°F confirmed at buoy 46026, active upwelling at both offshore buoys, and field reports from the Half Moon Bay fleet describing conditions as "vastly improved" per Western Outdoor News — Saltwater — is on schedule or even slightly favorable compared to what a typical healthy May looks like. Whether this translates into a sustained season-level recovery for the broader NorCal fleet depends on run escapement data well beyond what on-water reports can confirm. But the early signal from the water is encouraging, and 2026 may represent the most meaningful bounce-back for Bay Area and Bodega Bay salmon anglers in several years.