Fall mullet run and bait fuel Pamlico red drum bite

What's biting

What's next

Tides give clear windows to plan around today. At station 8652587 the next high is predicted at 10:13 AM local (14:13 UTC) and the next low at 5:23 PM local (21:23 UTC). At station 8654467 the high comes at 10:59 AM and the low at 5:55 PM. Moving water through the morning high should concentrate bait along edges and shorelines, which is when bluefish typically push baitfish hard.

The waxing crescent moon means darker evenings, so the best activity is likely at first light and around the tide changes rather than late at night. Saltwater Sportsman notes the fall mullet run typically runs from September well into November, with mullet pouring out of rivers, bays and estuaries and moving along the beaches. If that migration continues, expect bluefish to stay close to the surf and inlets for the coming weeks. Check state regs before harvesting anything.

Context

Mid October is a transition period along the Carolina coast. Water in the low 70s is typical for this point in the season, still warm enough to hold bait but cooling toward the point where the fall run peaks. This is the stretch when mullet and other baitfish funnel out of the sounds and rivers, and predators gather to meet them near inlets and along the beaches.

Fisherman's Post (NC) reports from across the coast this month point to the same broad pattern: a strong red drum showing from the Neuse down to the beaches, flounder seasons wrapping up, and a mix of surf species such as bluefish and mackerel following the bait. That fits what we typically see this time of year, so conditions look on schedule rather than early or late.