Fall run building as sea bass holds strong off Sandy Hook
Sandy Hook's NOAA CO-OPS station is reading 66.7°F this afternoon, a comfortable transition temperature as Raritan Bay shifts from summer species into the fall pattern. The weekend's nor'easter has cleared, per OTW Northern New Jersey's October 1 report, which noted the storm had put all fishing on hold along the Jersey Shore. Before the blow, Capt Ron out of Atlantic Highlands was running solid bottom-fishing trips in around 55 feet of water, mixing keeper and short black sea bass with everyone going home with dinner, and he flagged his recent outing as possibly the last strong day of fluke fishing for the 2026 season. Grumpys Tackle is already running a bucktail sale timed to the fall run and reporting bluefish showing up in numbers. That lines up with OTW Northern New Jersey's prior report noting improving fall-run striped bass action alongside lingering bluefish and false albacore as the season turns over.
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What's next
With the nor'easter past, expect water to settle over the next two to three days, and the sea bass bite Capt Ron has been working in that 55-foot range should hold, though he's noted the action softening around the midday tide change.
The next low tide at Sandy Hook is predicted for 7:32 PM local tonight (station 8531680); fish the moving water on either side of that swing rather than the slack. Tonight's Last Quarter moon means moderate tidal movement rather than the bigger swings of a full or new moon, so timing around dawn and dusk current stages matters more than tidal range this week.
Grumpys Tackle's bucktail promotion is timed for exactly this window, a signal the shop expects the striper push to build as water keeps cooling from today's 66.7°F mark. Fluke appears to be closing out for the season per Capt Ron's report, so weekend effort should lean toward sea bass in the bay and the building striper and bluefish action as the fall run gathers steam.
Context
Early October is the handoff point for Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook: summer fluke fishing winds down right as the fall striped bass migration starts building along the beaches and back bay. A mid-60s water temperature fits that transition, cool enough to push bait and trigger the fall bite without yet reading as a true late-fall pattern.
Black sea bass typically becomes the reliable fallback once fluke closes and before winter weather sets in, which tracks with the Atlantic Highlands reports this week. A nor'easter passing through in early fall commonly disrupts the pattern for several days before conditions reset, which is the stretch this region is working through now.
Synthesized from real-time NOAA buoy data, USGS stream gauges, and current reports across regional fishing blogs, captain updates, and angler forums. Check local regulations before keeping fish. Never trust a single source for a trip decision.
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