Redfish fall push gets going on warm Lower Laguna Madre water

What's biting

What's next

Today's tide timing from the CO-OPS predictions, converted to local time (CDT): station 8775237 shows a high near 3:33 AM and the next low near 3:21 PM. Station 8779770 shows a high near 1:37 AM and a low near 3:31 PM. Both stations point to a falling tide through the morning and into the afternoon. Falling water pulls bait off the flats and out through cuts and channel edges, which is usually when redfish stack up to ambush it.

The First Quarter moon means neap tides, so the swings are gentler than around a new or full moon. Expect softer current and fish that spread out rather than bunch up. Work the first couple of hours of light and the last hour before the afternoon low, when moving water is still on your side.

If water temperatures hold in the upper 70s over the next few days, expect the same pattern to continue. A cold front would be the main thing to change it, so keep an eye on the forecast before you commit to a long run.

Context

Mid-October is early in the fall transition for the Lower Laguna Madre. Water this warm usually means the first real cool-down is still ahead, and fish have not yet moved to their winter patterns. The fall bait movement along the Gulf typically fires up from September into November, and redfish tend to follow it through the shallows and passes. Compared with a typical year, 78°F water in the third week of October is on the warm side. Check current state regulations on size and bag limits before keeping any fish.