Warm south Texas water keeps fall bite in a slow transition

What's biting

What's next

With water in the low-to-mid 80s, the next few days should favor the cooler ends of the day. Dawn and the last hour of light are the best windows for topwater and moving baits. Midday heat tends to push fish tighter to shade, deeper cover or current seams.

If nights keep cooling, shallow bites should improve gradually. Watch for a drop of a few degrees on the gauges as the signal that fish are shifting from summer holding spots to fall feeding areas. Flow at 61.6 cfs is gentle, so moving water should be easy to read and fish around it.

The moon is a waxing crescent, so evenings carry little moonlight. Plan on a lower-light, quieter evening bite rather than a bright-moon night window. Before heading out, check the local forecast for wind, since a steady breeze usually helps the shallow bite more than a flat calm.

Context

Mid-October in Texas is typically a transition period. Summer patterns are loosening, but water temperatures often stay high compared with northern states. Readings in the low 80s are on the warm side for the date, so the full fall turn may arrive a bit later than the calendar suggests. Shallow feeding activity usually builds through late October and November as water cools and baitfish move toward the banks. Anglers who wait for the first real cool-down tend to catch the best of it, while those fishing now do better by staying flexible and choosing the cooler hours.