Chesapeake mouth warmth holds as fall striper push builds up north

What's next

The Mid-Atlantic striper run typically moves south as the season progresses, so the activity reported from Long Island and the Jersey coast this week is worth tracking over the next several weeks as it works toward the Bay mouth. At 72-73°F, Chesapeake water still has to shed several more degrees before that push reliably turns on locally, a shift that tends to follow the first sustained cold front more than the calendar date.

This week's Last Quarter moon means smaller tidal swings than around new or full moon, so the bigger tide-driven windows open back up as the moon builds toward its next phase. Worth another check as temps fall and the migration reports continue moving south along the coast.

Context

Early October at the Chesapeake mouth typically sits in a shoulder period, with summer patterns still holding while points north move into fall fishing. A water temp still in the low 70s this late is on the warmer side of typical for the date, in line with a fall run that's on schedule up the coast but hasn't yet pushed this far south.