Merrimack smallmouths holding on topwater as fall cooling sets in

What's biting

What's next

Expect flows to stay flat or drift lower through the next few days absent rain, and water temps to keep sliding toward the high 40s as overnight lows drop under the waning crescent moon. That cooling trend should keep smallmouth feeding shallow and aggressive before the fall turnover slows things down, and the window for topwater and moving baits like spinnerbaits is still open but narrowing, so mornings before the water warms slightly are the better bet right now.

On Lake Winnipesaukee, expect the lake to lag the rivers on cooling by a couple of weeks given its depth and volume, so shoreline structure there should still be holding fish comfortably through this stretch. Weekend planning: target the first few hours after sunrise while surface temps are at their coolest and baitfish activity is highest.

Context

Low-to-mid 50s water and single-digit-to-teens cfs flows are on schedule for early October in central New Hampshire. This region is firmly in its fall transition, with rivers cooling faster than the big lake. Smallmouth bass pushing shallow to feed on baitfish ahead of winter is a typical pattern for this stretch of the calendar, and the Merrimack's Concord-area shoreline bite fits that seasonal rhythm rather than reading as early or late. Expect the broader freshwater fishery to keep shifting toward slower, deeper patterns as water temps approach the upper 40s over the next few weeks.